What is autism, why have rates risen, and how have Autistic people been impacted by the Trump Administration?
Fact sheet written by recent and off-duty NIH staff, edited by 27 UNIHTED
All areas of NIH research have been impacted by sweeping political changes, but one particular area of concern we have been tracking is autism research.
RFK Jr., the Secretary of HHS (the Department that houses NIH), has been promoting misinformation about the cause of autism since the early aughts. Early on in his tenure he began hiring key figures who have personally gained from unethical research aimed to connect vaccines to autism, one of the many ways this administration has shown a pattern of promoting misinformation. We know this has made it difficult to determine what information is evidence-based. We also understand that this is a chaotic news environment. It can be difficult to track all changes that impact a specific issue so we made this post to help you sift through the noise. Below you can find information to help you advocate for government programs that support policies beneficial to autistic individuals and caregivers alike.
Why Do Autism Rates Appear to Be Rising?
The increase in autism has been observed in many countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Denmark, South Korea, and Japan. Most researchers believe the rise is driven largely by increased diagnosis and identification, not a sudden increase in autism itself.
Key reasons include:
Broader diagnostic criteria: Definitions of autism expanded in the 1990s and again in 2013, resulting in better identification of more people across the spectrum.
Improved diagnostic tools: Better screening and assessment methods help identify autism earlier and more accurately
Better recognition of autism in adults, girls, and women, who were often overlooked in the past.
Greater awareness among parents, teachers, and healthcare providers has led to more referrals and evaluations.
Increased access to services and supports tied to an autism diagnosis encourages more families to seek assessments.
In short, there is stronger evidence for an “epidemic of diagnoses” than an epidemic of autism itself.
Key Point: The rise in autism is mostly a rise in diagnoses, not necessarily a rise in autism itself.
How Do We Measure Autism Prevalence?
Measuring autism prevalence is challenging and depends heavily on access to healthcare and diagnostic services.
Some countries with universal healthcare maintain national registries that track autism diagnoses across the entire population.
In the United States, healthcare depends on having health insurance and is not easily tracked across public and private insurance systems, making it very difficult to determine prevalence this way.
In the United States, prevalence estimates come primarily from the CDC’s Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network, which reviews health and education records from selected states.
Because these estimates are based on review of patient clinical records rather than direct clinical evaluations, results can be influenced by:
Differences in state services and supports
Access to healthcare
School eligibility criteria
Local diagnostic practices
As a result, some autistic people may be missed while others may be counted based on educational or behavioral records rather than a formal clinical evaluation.
What Causes Autism?
Research consistently shows that genetics plays the largest role in autism.
Autism is passed down through genes.
Autism is highly heritable, about 80%, similar to height.
Autism tends to occur more often among biological relatives.
Rare genetic variants account for roughly 10–20% of cases, including some new (de novo) mutations that arise before birth.
Thousands of common genetic variants can combine to increase the likelihood of autism.
Environmental influences appear to play a smaller role than genetics and often interact with underlying genetic susceptibility. Some factors associated with increased autism likelihood include:
Older parental age
Certain infections during pregnancy
Preterm birth
Environmental factors with mixed findings that need more research:
Air pollution exposure before birth,
Maternal obesity or gestational diabetes,
Some medications during pregnancy, and
What the Evidence Does Not Support
There is no established link between vaccines and autism.
There is no single cause of autism.
Autism cannot be explained by one environmental factor alone.
Key point: Autism is primarily genetic, with multiple biological and environmental influences—not one single cause.
Understanding Autism
Autism is not a disease or mental health disorder, it is a lifelong neurodevelopmental condition.
Autistic people have a wide range of strengths, challenges, and support needs:
Autism encompasses a wide range of strengths, challenges, and support needs.
Many live independently, work, attend college, marry, and raise families.
Others require significant support throughout their lives.
About 30% of autistic people also have intellectual disability.
Autism is a lifelong condition
Federal cuts to autism research and support programs will negatively affect both scientific progress and services for autistic people and their families.
A person’s value should never be judged by whether they can work, pay taxes, or live independently.
Federal Cuts to Autism and Disability Services: Key Concerns
Autism policy should be guided by evidence, support for autistic people and their families, and investments in services that improve quality of life. Many disability advocates, researchers, clinicians, and autism organizations have expressed concern that current federal priorities emphasize searching for a single cause of autism while simultaneously reducing funding for programs, services, and research that autistic people rely on.
Concerns include:
Cuts to public health infrastructure
Reductions in autism research funding.
Cuts affecting Medicaid services that many autistic people rely upon
Reduced support for speech, occupational, and behavioral services
Cuts to special education training programs.
Decreased support for community-based services
Understanding autism is important, but research should not come at the expense of services, supports, education, healthcare, and quality of life.
Public Health and Research Infrastructure
The Department of Health and Human Services has reduced staffing across several agencies, including:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
The National Institutes of Health (NIH)
The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA)
These reductions weaken research capacity, public health monitoring, and disability-related programs.
Reduced Autism Research Funding
The federal government provides the majority of autism research funding in the United States.
Significant reductions have occurred across research, education, and public health programs:
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) has canceled approximately $40 million in autism-related research grants.
Analyses of NIH funding trends have reported substantial reductions in autism research funding compared with previous years. Funding fell by about $62 million during the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.
The Department of Defense eliminated its annual $15 million autism research program for 2025.
The National Science Foundation cut funding for programs supporting neurodivergent researchers and students.
Proposed federal budget reductions would significantly reduce funding for NIH, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and other public health agencies that support autism, disability, and developmental research.
Interruptions in long-term studies can delay scientific progress, disrupt careers, and reduce the nation’s ability to understand autism and improve supports for autistic people.
Early Identification and Pediatric Health Programs
In December 2025, HHS canceled seven federal grants previously awarded to the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), one of the nation’s largest pediatric medical organizations, because they “no longer aligned with departmental priorities.” The affected programs supported:
Early identification of autism
Rural access to pediatric health care
Child and adolescent mental health
Prevention of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS)
Services for children with birth defects
Prevention of fetal alcohol spectrum disorders
Loss of funding could negatively affect children and families nationwide by reducing programs that help identify developmental concerns and connect children with services early. For autism specifically, early screening and identification are among the most effective ways to connect children and families with educational supports, therapies, and accommodations.
Reduction in Health Care and Medicaid
Many autistic people rely on Medicaid for services such as behavioral supports, therapies, home- and community-based services, assistive technology, and long-term care.
Recent federal legislation includes major reductions in projected Medicaid spending. Analysts have estimated that millions of Americans could lose health insurance coverage over the coming years.
States facing reduced federal funding may limit services that many autistic and disabled people depend on to live independently in their communities.
Public Health and Vaccine Policy
Many public health organizations have expressed concern about changes to federal vaccine policy and scientific advisory processes.
Researchers continue to emphasize that:
There is no established link between vaccines and autism.
Multiple large studies conducted in the United States and internationally have consistently failed to find evidence that vaccines cause autism.
Vaccination programs remain one of the most effective public health interventions for preventing serious infectious diseases.
Cuts to Education and Disability Services
Schools are often the primary source of autism identification, therapy, and support services. Access to education, therapies, employment supports, and community services has a greater impact on quality of life than continued efforts to identify a single cause of autism.
Recent cuts include:
Termination of grants that train special education teachers, speech-language pathologists, occupational therapists, and other professionals who work with autistic students.
Cuts and delays affecting disability transition programs that help young adults move from high school to college or employment.
Programs that support students with disabilities are moving from the Department of Education to the Department of Health and Human Services, a Dept. unfamiliar with the public education system. These programs ensure that states follow the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) which guarantees disabled students access to an equitable public education.
Proposed reductions to programs that support special education research, teacher training, and disability services.
More than half of the health, scientist and professionals who supported disability in public health were cut last year. This includes the entire Disability and Health Promotion Branch at the CDC, including Early Hearing Detection and Intervention. Fewer trained professionals will make it harder for autistic students to access evaluations, therapies, and educational supports.
Disability Rights and Civil Rights Enforcement
Autistic people are part of the broader disability community. More than one in four U.S. adults lives with a disability, and many disability organizations have raised concerns that recent policy changes could weaken civil rights enforcement, accessibility initiatives, educational supports, healthcare access, and employment protections.
Several federal civil rights offices responsible for enforcing disability protections have experienced major staffing reductions, including:
Nearly half of the staff at the Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights.
Significant reductions at the Department of Justice Civil Rights Division which has now been moved from the Dept. of Education to the Department of Justice, which recently penned a memo arguing that states do not have to provide in-home or community-based care to people with disabilities who need support. This largely contradicts the Olmstead Act.
Elimination or downsizing of multiple federal civil rights offices responsible for investigating discrimination complaints.
Rollbacks of accessibility and inclusion initiatives.
Proposed reductions in disability-related education, housing, healthcare, and employment programs.
Potential reductions in home- and community-based services that help people live independently.
These reductions slow investigations of discrimination complaints and make it harder to enforce protections under laws such as the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act, and the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA).
Environmental Research
Although federal officials have expressed interest in studying environmental contributors to autism:
The Environmental Protection Agency has proposed rolling back some environmental regulations.
The EPA has reduced research activities, including programs that historically examined environmental health risks.
Reducing environmental research limits the ability to study factors that could influence neurodevelopment.
What you can do
Stay informed!
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Find out if you have a Congress member who co-sponsored the Autism CARES Act or who serves on the Autism Caucus - and contact your members